The political environment in Karnataka is fully heated up. Whose head will be adorned with the crown will be finally known by today evening. Although both ends Congress-JDS alliance and BJP are confident of victory and claim that they have enough numbers to win, the tide seems to be more in the favour of BJP.
At present, BJP emerging as the single largest party having 104 MLAs, seven short of the half mark of 111, while the Congress and JD(S) won 78 and 37 seats respectively. Congress-JDS combine together leads to 116 which is enough to touch the magic number
But here comes the twist that throws the ball in the favour of BJP. It is suspected that out of these 116 MLAs there are around 20 Congress-JDS MLAs who will not support the alliance and will favour BS Yeddyurappa. These all MLAs belong to Lingayat Community.
It is expected that during the time of floor testing these 20 MLAS can cross vote and save the BJP Government. As these legislatures are not at all happy with the Congress-JDS Alliance and they are also deeply hurt by the move of Congress to recommend separate religious status to Lingayats. This decision of Congress of dividing the community has also backfired on them during the elections as Majority of Lingayat community votes has gone in favour of BJP and the Congress Lingayat leaders who had spearheaded the move also suffered a setback in their respective constituencies.
In Karnataka, the Lingayat community constitutes 20% of the population and BS Yeddyurappa having stronghold on Lingayats is one of the top and prominent Lingayat leader. So it is suspected that these leaders will support BS Yeddyurappa. Moreover, they don’t want to accept a Vokaliga leader Kumaraswamy as a Chief minister as Lingayats have always viewed Vokaligas as betrayers.
Earlier also in 2007, the Lingayat leader BS Yeddyurappa has been cheated by the JDS. At that time agreement was signed between the BJP and the JD(S) in 2006, according to which Kumaraswamy was to head the coalition government for the first 20 months followed by Yeddyurappa for the same period. However, at the last moment, Kumaraswamy refused to relinquish his post. Yeddyurappa and his party then withdrew support to the government in 2007, leading to its collapse and subsequently President’s rule was imposed in the state.
The Lingayats leaders doesn’t believe in JD(S) and believe that they can betray them again at any point. So it is strongly being speculated that if these leaders will excise their choice wisely the whole game can be turned upside down and the numbers will go in favour of BJP.
Even If these leaders doesn’t vote for BJP and abstain from voting then also it will topple the entire picture as it will bring the Congress-JDS tally to less numbers of seats. These leaders can be issued a whip from their respective parties after their abstaining from voting but if the leaders defied the whip of their parties, then it will lead to disqualification of candidates and the possibility will arise for re-elections as the seats would fall vacant. So there is high probability that any move taken by the Lingayat leaders can make way for BJP to come in power.
Source: Postcard
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