From implementing demonetization of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes and sweeping Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections to introducing GST and winning Gujarat, Himachal, Tripura, Nagaland elections; one cannot do it unless and until you are Narendra Modi.
From backing surgical strike on Pakistan for the first time in India’s history and boosting the morale of the Armed forces, to recovering the loans given to big corporates during the great economist Mr Manmohan Singh’s tenure, PM Modi has proved that he is not less than any superhero.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also showed the world how to lead the world’s largest democracy even though you are a hardcore Hindu. From being Gujarat’s Chief Minister for a stretch of 13 years to successfully completing 4 years in Delhi, Mr Modi has shown how to be a one-man Army and decimate and paralyze the enemy.
From penetrating to every underdeveloped village and including them into the banking system to electrifying every village in India, one cannot do this until and unless you work for 18 hours a day.
Here comes the mega twist, and this is found only in India!
But we live in India and Indians are specialized in forgetting the “good and bad deeds” done to us by others. That’s why Indians had elected the “Gandhi Parivaar” for a long stretch of 70 years even though it divided Hindus, offered red carpets to foreigners who wanted to loot India and even broke the morale of Indian soldiers.
So, it won’t be a surprise if Prime Minister loses in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, even after making India a “Vishwa Guru” in the global platform. Being a Modi-bhakt, if you want BJP to win the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with clear majority (Note that if BJP fails to cross the 282-seat majority mark by even 10 seats, then it will happen like that of Karnataka, where Modi-haters will unite forgetting their enmity and form a government), then BJP must win the next 4 assembly elections that will take place before 2019.
The 4 big assembly elections, literally a litmus test to PM Modi!
The assembly election that will take place in the next 6 or so months are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Even if BJP performs poorer than the last assembly elections, then it will be projected as a moral victory for Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. Paid media will run prime-time shows and claim that Modi wave has evaporated ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
In the 2013 Assembly Elections, BJP emerged victorious in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh with a huge margin. This victory acted as a fuel to BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections that was held shortly after the assembly elections.
Out of the 65 MP seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, BJP had swept 62 MP seats but Congress had won just 3 seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won all the 25 seats in Rajasthan and it had won just 27 seats in Madhya Pradesh whereas Congress had won just seats.
In Chhattisgarh, BJP had won 10 MP seats whereas Congress had won just 1 seat. So if BJP wants to cross the 282 seat mark then it should repeat the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2013 Assembly election performance.
In the last assembly election of Mizoram state, where elections were held on 25 November 2013 in all the 40 constituencies, Congress had secured 34 seats but BJP didn’t even secure a single seat. So, if BJP wins significant seats in the upcoming elections then the people will be made to believe that there is a Modi wave even in the states where the saffron brigade is not in power.
When will the 4 states go for Assembly Elections?
State Presently Ruled By Election Date
Mizoram Congress No later than 18 December 2018
Chhattisgarh BJP No later than 5 January 2019
Madhya Pradesh BJP No later than 7 January 2019
Rajasthan BJP No later than 20 January 2019
Source Credit: Wikipedia
In the 2013 Assembly Elections in Rajasthan, BJP had won 163 seats out of 200 seats
BJP Seats Won
BJP 163
Congress 21
Others 16
Total Seats 200
BJP swept the poll with securing more than 80 percent of the seats.
Vasundhara Raje led BJP had won 45.2 percent vote shares whereas Congress had secured 33.1 percent votes.
Few exist polls had said that BJP will not secure majority, few had even predicted that BJP would get nearly 120 seats. But the party stunned every political analysts on the counting day.
The polling was held on 1st December 2013 and the results were out on 8th December 2013.
Modi wave was a prominent factor in this election.
In the 2013 Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh, BJP had won 165 seats out of 230 seats
BJP Seats Won
BJP 165
Congress 58
Others 07
Total Seats 230
The Election was held on 25 November 2013 and the results were announced on 8 December.
BJP not just won 165 seats but also secured 71.74 percentage of votes.
Congress displayed its pathetic performance by securing 58 seats and garnering just 25.22 vote share.
In the 2013 Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh, BJP had won 49 seats out of 90 seats
BJP Seats Won
BJP 49
Congress 39
Others 02
Total Seats 90
Though BJP won 10 seats more than the Congress, it was a close battle when it came to vote share.
BJP had secured 41 percent votes whereas the Congress had secured just 40.3 percent votes.
The Election was held in two phases on 11 and 19 November 2013 and the result was announced on 8th December.
BJP didn’t even win a single seat in the Mizoram Assembly Elections!
BJP Seats Won
BJP 00
Congress 34
Others 06
Total Seats 40
In 2013, the Congress party had won 34 seats out of the 40 seats. But the BJP couldn’t even win a single seat.
BJP’s vote share was just 0.4 percent whereas Congress had bagged 44.6 percentage of votes.
At present, BJP is governing in more than 20 seats and with a strong central leadership unlike the Congress in which Rahul Gandhi is getting ready to sideline heavyweights like Ahmed Patel and recruit newbies, who listen to his orders. So, the BJP under PM Modi is still having an upper hand in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The only thing is how will BJP perform in the next 4 crucial assembly elections? If BJP performs even slightly poorer than it did in 2013 elections, than Congress will certainly have a leverage in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
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